How To Assess Geopolitical Risk in a Fragmenting World

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How do corporations assess geopolitical risks? What changes do companies large and small need to make in their approaches to doing business?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The COVID-19 Pandemic. On-and-off-and-on-again tariffs. Over the past few years, the deeply interconnected global system has experienced major shocks that international organizations and nation states alike have struggled to grapple with. In this age of uncertainty, businesses and governments need to make new calculations. More large companies are opening their own geopolitical units to stay steady on the shifting currents. How do corporations assess geopolitical risks? What changes do companies large and small need to make in their approaches to doing business? And what unforeseen opportunities may come from these changes?Join us on Tuesday, June 9th from 12 to 1 PM ET to delve into the calculation of risks in this potential new geopolitical order with Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist at BCA Research and Pablo Rasmussen, a Director at Brzezinski Global Strategies.

Matt Gertken helps investors understand how geopolitical and political developments impact markets and portfolio positioning. His work focuses on identifying risks and opportunities from policy shifts, elections, and global power dynamics and translating them into clear investment implications. Matt leads the firm’s global geopolitical coverage. He develops scenario-based frameworks to assess risk and probability and advises clients on how to navigate major political and geopolitical turning points. Before joining BCA in 2015, Matt was a Senior Analyst at Stratfor and held roles in research and publishing. He has nearly two decades of experience in geopolitical analysis and is a frequent commentator in global media. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin. He is author of Swift’s Grand Strategy (forthcoming, Cambridge University Press). Pablo Rasmussen is a Director at Brzezinski Global Strategies. Prior to joining the firm, Pablo served in the Biden-Harris Administration as an advisor to the Deputy Director of the Peace Corps, where he supported enterprise strategy, global operations across 61 country posts, and portfolios including inter-agency cooperation and diplomacy. He led the strategic reopening of five country programs, launched recruitment initiatives, and managed high-level diplomatic engagements in Washington and overseas. Before his service in the Administration, Pablo worked at Albright Stonebridge Group as a Senior Associate in the Europe Practice. He advised Fortune 500 companies, foundations, and NGOs on trans-Atlantic affairs, EU policy, green transition strategies, and investment risk across 25+ markets. His work included organizing ministerial-level events and providing strategic counsel on market entry, regulatory analysis, and stakeholder engagement. Pablo has also held various leadership positions in the NextGen Initiative at Foreign Policy for America. He has contributed opinion pieces to outlets including Euractiv, The Brussels Times and Harvard Political Review. He received an AB in Government from Harvard University. Pablo is fluent in Spanish and English.

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How To Assess Geopolitical Risk in a Fragmenting World

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